As China embarks on a new 5-Year Plan this year and expecting a leadership change next year, she is entering a new phase and marching to a new drumbeat. How will China cope with this change and how will it affect the world at large? These were questions that this year’s FutureChina Global Forum “China in the Next Phase: Marching to a New Drumbeat” aimed to answer.
The one and a half day forum commencing on 11 July 2011 at Ritz-Carlton Millenia Singapore, had a cross fertilization of talks anchored by 5 pillars: politics and society, business and economy, global relations, science and technology and arts and culture.
With some 350 distinguished business leaders and personalities joining 17 plenary and concurrent sessions, the Forum provided an integrated approach to understand the emerging China, and new trends shaping its development.
“At the end of forum, I hope you will take home a more holistic picture of the fast evolving new China, and in addition, establishing invaluable network with experts and important decision makers around the world.” said Mr Chua Thian Poh, Chairman of Business China, organiser of the forum, during his opening remarks.
Kicking off the morning’s session was Li Jiange, Chairman of China International Capital Corporation Ltd. He noted that the 12th 5 Year Plan not only emphasized on the development model of China’s changing economy, but also on raising China’s standards of living through increased domestic expenditure, in order to expand China’s middle class.
He explained the Plan’s rationale: “To decide on how to cut the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) cake, we must first think about how to increase the size of the cake.”
Other than Li Jiange, Chairman of the Board of Directors of China Vanke Co. Ltd, Wang Shi, and Bert G. Kerstetter ’66 University Professor of Politics and International Affairs, Princeton University, Anne-Marie Slaughter, were also speakers for the session.
Moderator Claude Smadja posed the worry of how China’s inflation would impact the global economy, to which Li Jiange replied with the humorous analogy of pork prices, stating that inflation was “not as bad as imagined”. Similarly, Wang Shi also stated that the level of indebtedness of local provincial governments would not bring the greatest repercussion to the Chinese economy.
The speakers were also asked on their views on the growing clout of the Chinese global economy, to which Professor Slaughter quoted the Obama administration’s mantra “With great power comes great responsibility” – As China’s investment power grew, the pressure on the government to act responsibly would also grow. In response, Wang Shi cited a powerful illustration of responsible investment he had learnt on a field trip at the Amazon Rainforest, such as collaboration with the World Wildlife Fund.
Attending the session was Former Senior Editor of China’s newspaper, People’s Daily, Ma Licheng, who commented that “While it is true that China should undertake greater responsibility, it is a learning process. This is a very good platform for different people to add on to China’s globalisation process.”
Singapore Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Finance and Manpower, Tharman Shanmugaratnam, was the keynote speaker for the day’s Plenary Luncheon. He predicted that in the next ten years, China would move up to the middle and higher end of the production line, as the literacy rate and major innovations in China increased. In addition, he added that a reorientation towards technical education which markets want and developing knowledge-based industries would be crucial to increasing productivity.
When asked about the backdrop for Singapore, he said, “Singapore is well positioned as a business and financial centre…Interaction across Asia is really very exciting, there is tremendous potential. We as a global city within Asia have to be part of the Asian story, to facilitate trade within the region.”
In response to DPM Tharman’s speech, Professor Su Guaning, President Emeritus of Nanyang Technological University, commented that he enjoyed Tharman’s view: “It was optimistic and clear; I am inclined to agree with him.”
Similarly, China’s Central Television anchor Tian Wei said that DPM Tharman accurately portrayed the “dramatic changes” that China could face in the next 5 years, echoing the forum’s theme of ‘FutureChina’.
“This forum has left a deep impression on me – Its diversity of voices and angles makes it comparable with the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos-Klosters.” she said.
The next hot debate was on how to integrate China in the global system without rocking the boat. China’s rise to power has also sparked questions on how it should fulfill its responsibilities as a global stakeholder.
“The way China operates its foreign policy is not always through international institutions like us. But I do see China tries to sort out some of its trade issue through different means,” said keynote speaker Mr Supachai Panitchpakdi.
The Secretary-General of United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) described China’s approach towards the global system as “crossing water in a cautious manner”.
Besides Mr Supachai, Mr Akihiko Tanaka, managing director & executive vice president of University of Tokyo was another key speaker of the session.
When asked by the session’s moderator on how Japan perceive China’s rise, Mr Tanaka said, “the emergence of China as an economic superpower is inevitable, and in some respect, really necessary for Japan’s economy to recover.”
Recognizing that China has been Japan’s major source of economic growth for the past two years during its recession, he emphasized the need for better Sino-Japanese ties. He suggested China to embrace and adopt a more global view of the world and its national history.
In response to the debate session, Ms Melissa Hyak said it was interesting and refreshing to hear many different views. The presenter of Channel NewsAsia said such dialogue sessions are “meaningful in the long run”.
Following the session was the dinner dialogue between Former Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew and Chair of the board for the Brookings Institution, Mr John L. Thornton.
Despite stepping down from office, Mr Lee is still widely sought after for his thoughts on China, as he shares a close relationship with its leaders.
He said that if he were China, he would want to maintain equitable and stable relationship with the US for the next 20 to 30 years. This is because China still needs the US for technology, skills and markets.
“Getting students to go there to learn how Americans manage institutions and produce such a diverse conglomerate of cities and ideas. In China, they tend to be more uniformed in their ideas because they’ve all been through the same drill. It’s that diversity that gives the Americans great strength,” said Mr Lee.
Dr. Yeo Seem Huat, who has also attended the forum last year, said in Mandarin that as compared to the speech Mr Lee made last year, it was much more interesting this year.
“ There was constant loud applause and laughter coming from the audience. I really enjoyed it and think Mr Lee was very humourous and sincere in sharing his insights,” said the consultant psychiatrist.
About 600 guests attended the Dinner Dialogue.